Foley and the Republican Party (part two)

So the pundits are out in full force trying to figure out what will happen to the Republicans in light of Rep Foley’s (R-Fla.) scandal. Paul Krugman of The New York Times wrote an interesting op/ed article. He insists that this is just but one piece of a larger unraveling of the Republican collation. He takes his inspiration from the book we’re going to read later in the semester: What’s the Matter With Kansas? Krugman offers an interesting view that the wings of the party (values and economics) are at a clash with the party with side getting more ignored at a time than the other.
While there may be some truth to this thesis, I don’t think the party will unravel anytime soon, if ever. Krugman forgets the great and powerful spin machine the Republicans run. This spin machine has worked to get Bush another victory in 2004 (and will probably grant a Republican victory in 2008). For the Republicans, collation building is understood as key. In fact as we read in the Bernstein article, even though the Bush campaign had some factionalism in it, it also contained a collation. A bridge between conservative groups exists to bring together the Big Tent Party.
As we have discussed the decline of the party system, it would take an earth shattering issue to bring down either party. The Republican party may change its composition, but it wont die. What should be studied right now is the possibility of a new party forming, one just for the religious right. For another party to succeed in our system is the capturing of local districts and offices. Since the Republican’s built there districts around their constituencies to keep their district safe. It might be a possibility that the “safe” district could be set up just right for a new religious party. The party could be composed of a sort of inverse Libertarian party-don’t care what happens economically but wants tight regulation of personal life. The party would be situated close enough to the religious right part of the political spectrum, that it might gain strength.
With scandal surrounding the Republicans, it looks like they might be on the decline. It will be slow, given their extraordinary ability to campaign. Their governing is their downfall. By building a big collation and then ignoring or pandering in an absurd way, the Republican party will probably see a shift in their party demographic. This shift could cause a new party to form, and actually gain strength. We might see the rise of a third party in the near future if the Republicans continue to ignore part of their base. (I wonder if Karl Rove is thinking of this?)